The future of Brazil’s former President Jair Bolsonaro is in the balance as his trial for masterminding a conspiracy to stay in power enters its final stage today. The country is bracing for unrest during the trial.
A Supreme Court panel has scheduled sessions from September 2-12 to decide whether the populist ex-leader is guilty of seeking to overturn the result of the 2022 presidential election, which he lost to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
Bolsonaro, who is 70, was charged with five counts related to attempting to stage a coup d’etat. He denies any wrongdoing and is currently under house arrest, having repeatedly claimed that his trial is politically motivated.
That argument resonated with US President Donald Trump, who slapped a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports and linked that to Bolsonaro’s trial, calling it a “witch hunt” against a political opponent.
What’s expected to happen on Tuesday?
A five-justice panel at the Supreme Court is hearing the case, which is against Bolsonaro and seven of his allies.
On Tuesday, Justice Alexandre de Moraes — whom Bolsonaro and his allies accuse of driving the trial against the former president — is expected to begin by detailing the case. Others on the judges’ panel include Cristiano Zanin, a former attorney for President Lula, and Flavio Dino, the leftist president’s former justice minister. As president, Bolsonaro appointed two Supreme Court justices who are not on the panel.
After Moraes speaks, the prosecutor general is expected to read out the charges against Bolsonaro. After that, lawyers for Bolsonaro and the seven other defendants are expected to deliver statements.
In theory, if the justices move directly to vote after closing arguments on Tuesday, and a majority is reached, Bolsonaro could be convicted on Tuesday.
In practice, however, Supreme Court trials often get delayed by suspended proceedings, sometimes for months. Bolsonaro’s lawyers are widely expected to raise procedural questions, file motions and highlight “new evidence” in the hopes of stretching out the case.
What crimes is Bolsonaro accused of?
Bolsonaro is accused of five crimes: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organisation, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, and two counts involving destruction of state property.
A guilty verdict on the coup plot charge alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years.
Seven other close allies of Bolsonaro are being tried alongside the former president, including his running mate and defence minister, Walter Braga Netto, and the former defence minister, Paulo Sergio Nogueira.
The prosecution has argued that the riot on January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro supporters ransacked top government buildings a week after Lula took office, was an attempt by Bolsonaro’s camp to force military intervention and oust the new president.
The prosecution has also accused Bolsonaro’s aides of planning to assassinate Lula before his swearing-in. Investigators say the evidence shows the former president approved the plan.
Brazil’s top electoral court has already banned Bolsonaro from running in elections until 2030 over abuse of power while in office, and for casting doubts on the country’s electronic voting system.
While Bolsonaro has denied making any attempt to overthrow Brazil’s democracy, he acknowledged at a deposition that he took part in meetings looking for ways to reverse the outcome of the 2022 election.
For his part, Bolsonaro has expressed his intention to run for president in 2026.
Will Bolsonaro be present at the trial?
Bolsonaro is under house arrest in a high-security gated community in the capital, Brasilia. One of his lawyers said it was unclear if the former president would attend this week’s sessions.
He is wearing a court-ordered ankle monitor and is under full surveillance after investigators found a document suggesting he may have considered seeking political asylum in Argentina – an allegation his lawyers deny.
Since July, Bolsonaro has been banned from contacting foreign officials, using social media or approaching national embassies.
What would happen if Bolsonaro were convicted?
While the maximum combined sentence for the crimes Bolsonaro is accused of could exceed 40 years, lawyers anticipate a shorter term, noting that 40 years is Brazil’s maximum allowable prison sentence.
Why is this trial significant?
Some Brazilian commentators have labelled Bolsonaro’s trial as “historic” by noting that it’s the first time high-ranking officials accused of an attempted coup are being subjected to a criminal trial.
A military dictatorship seized power for more than 20 years until 1985, after armed forces, backed by conservative elites, overthrew the elected President Joao Goulart in 1964. In spite of human rights abuses, Bolsonaro has expressed nostalgia for Brazil’s military rule.
In 1979, the government passed the Amnesty Law — and as a result, Brazil never prosecuted any of the military officials responsible for the widespread rights violations during that era.
To Bolsonaro and his supporters, the charges against him amount to political persecution, aimed at thwarting his political comeback in next year’s presidential election.
Is Trump involved in the trial?
On August 1, United States President Donald Trump slapped Brazil with a 50 percent US tariff, citing the charges against Bolsonaro, who was an ally of Trump’s, as politically motivated.
In a July letter to Brazil’s current President Lula, Trump said that Brazil’s treatment of Bolsonaro “is an international disgrace”.
He said that his justification for the sky-high tariff was “due in part to Brazil’s insidious attacks on Free Elections, and the fundamental Free Speech Rights of Americans”.
“Please understand that the 50 percent number is far less than what is needed to have the Level Playing Field we must have with your Country,” the US president said.
He added that “the way that Brazil has treated former President Bolsonaro, a Highly Respected Leader throughout the World during his term, including by the United States, is an international disgrace”.
While Trump’s global trade war has chiefly targeted countries that run a large surplus with the US, Brazilian imports from the US far outweigh its exports, and Washington had a trade surplus of $28.6bn in goods and services with Brazil in 2024.
Brazil’s President Lula has indicated that his government will not immediately impose retaliatory tariffs on the US. Instead, he repeated his call for Trump to join him in trade discussions.
Trump, who also falsely claimed he had beaten Joe Biden in the 2020 US presidential race, had faced criminal charges related to seeking to overturn that election.
His supporters also stormed the US Capitol before Biden took office, seeking to stop the certification of the election results. Many experts believe the January 6, 2021 attack on the US Capitol served as the inspiration for the 2023 riot in Brazil by Bolsonaro supporters.
Trump has highlighted what he regards as parallels between himself and Bolsonaro. Earlier this year, he wrote on social media that he empathised with what was happening to Bolsonaro and claimed, “It happened to me, times 10.”
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